Wiz’s Basketball Futures

Well as we head into the two longest weeks of the football season with our 3,200 units of profit (+3,500 on Florida State -100 each on Chiefs, Colts and 49ers) we still have a chance of turning a 20% NFL ROI should Pete Carroll be able to figure out a way to stop Peyton Manning. Our final ticket is on the Seahawks at 5/1 odds. We still have ten plus days of the talking heads before the commercial filled Super Bowl 48. In the meantime I would like to share with you my basketball futures.

Back in November I told you I put 100 units on the Pacers at 12/1 odds. Earlier this month on another visit to Vegas the best odds offered were 3/1 so I am more than happy with my position in the NBA Eastern Conference. I decided to invest 100 units in the West as well. Oklahoma City and the Spurs have identical numbers according to my power ratings and since the best available odds on each were OKC 6/1 San Antonio 8/1 I decided to go with Tim Duncan and company at the more generous number. As you might note I have used only 200 of my 500 unit NBA bankroll. Over the years I have soured on how the NBA games are played and in general how the league is run. I could always pull the trigger on the remaining 300 units later in the season but it is very doubtful that I will.

As far as March Madness is concerned I will remind you that back in November I wagered 100 units each on Duke at 6/1 and Michigan State and Kansas both at 8/1. The public has gotten off Duke and maybe for good reason but there best odds currently are 12/1. Kansas has stayed around the 8/1 mark with their lowest number being at the Stratosphere at 2 ½ to 1. The highest number I could find on the Jayhawks was 8/1. Michigan State was currently the favorite at most books with odds hovering between 3 ½ to 4 ½ to 1 but I did see a 7/1 at the Fremont. I have to admit that as I drove across the desert my intent was to wager my remaining 200 March Madness units on Arizona at 10/1 at the LVH (Old Las Vegas Hilton). When I saw their odds had dropped to 8/1 I immediately started rethinking my position. According to my power ratings you can throw a blanket over the top ten or twelve teams this year and any of them are capable of going on a big run in March and cutting down the nets on April 7th in Arlington, Texas. So I say to myself why not take a shot on some double digit longshots? Thus I put 50 units each on four teams:

• Syracuse 15/1
• Ohio State 16/1
• Wisconsin 20/1
• Iowa State 30/1

Since I made these wagers on the morning of January 11th Syracuse has gone 3-0 and remained undefeated at 18-0 and ranked #2 in the latest AP Top 25. Of course this is where the success story ends with Ohio State not winning a single game since I bet on them dropping three in a row to drop to #17 in the polls. The Cyclones of Iowa State have done the exact same thing dropping three in a row and falling all the way to #16 in the polls. The Badgers of Wisconsin have not done much better falling from the unbeaten ranks and losing two in a row with a chance to match the Buckeyes and Cyclones as they head into tonight’s game against Minnesota. The Arizona Wildcats on the other hand have crushed both USC and their state rival Arizona State to remain unbeaten at 18-0 and at the top of the AP Polls. So am I second guessing my strategy? Have I spread myself too thin? You bet I am but that’s what makes playing the futures so much fun. Syracuse is a live dog at 15/1 and the other three have plenty of time to right the ship and play themselves into contention. So while the rest of the sports world is getting put to sleep by the talking heads I have plenty of basketball to keep track of. Thanks for logging on and check back next week for my insights on Super Bowl #48.