Why Would I Lay The Points?

It is extremely hard for me to root for Ray Lewis. He got away with murder!!!!!

I still believe Super Bowls are won with defense and these FOUR DEFENSIVE STATS are key:

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game

• Ravens      122.8
• 49ers          94.2

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game

• Ravens      228.1
• 49ers         200.2

Total Yards Allowed Per Game

• Ravens        350.9
• Niners        294.4

Total Points Allowed Regular Season

• Ravens         344
• 49ers            273

Teams sweeping all 4 categories are 14-3 (83%) straight up in the game. I own a ticket on SF at 5 to 1 so why would I bet against it by laying points? If you have been following me this fall you know I also have a ticket on the Ravens but will profit 200 more units if the Niners win Sunday’s game.

As far as everyone’s under 47 “theory” based on them believing there will be a lot of turnovers? Even if they are right how do they know WHERE the turnovers will occur on the field? Many times turnovers lead to easy scores and a run up on the total. I prefer to take a more “historical” approach. 13 of the last 19 (68%) Super Bowls with a total of less than 50 have gone OVER. The total opened at 50 1/2 and Joe Public (I love him almost as much as Teo) has bet it down to 47. Games played in the Superdome are 3-3 against the total. Back to the rushing figure of 122.8 yards allowed per game for the Ravens you might like to know that only 2 of 24 (8%) teams allowing more than 116 yards per game have ever won the Super Bowl. Props are a sucker bet but if you must here are a couple to look for: 1) SF to score first 2) SF most passing yards 3)Baltimore longest Field Goal 4) Baltimore most turnovers. These are 60%+ winners but usually ask you to lay a ton of juice.

Hope this helps, enjoy the game and have FUN!!

The Wiz