WHEN You Bet On March Madness May Be The Key

I have come to the realization that it makes no sense to wager on the NCAA basketball futures before this week. I wagered 100 units each on three teams last November:

• Kansas 8/1
• Michigan State 8/1
• Duke 6/1

Then in January I wagered 50 units each on four teams:

• Iowa State 30/1
• Wisconsin 20/1
• Syracuse     15/1
• Ohio State  16/1

The current odds on these seven squads at the LVH are now:

• Kansas 10/1
• Michigan State 5/1
• Duke 15/1
• Iowa State 35/1
• Wisconsin 20/1
• Syracuse 15/1
• Ohio State 60/1

Three of the teams have the same odds now, three have better odds and only one team (Michigan State) has shorter odds having gone from 8/1 to 5/1. This tells me that unlike other futures pools there is very little interest or action in these pools during the regular season. This coupled with the fact that we live in the era of one and done when the top players move on trying to make their fortune in the NBA after only one year of play on the collegiate level. My theory here is that most teams are younger these days and have more freshman starters who by the end of the season have become worn down with the 30+ game season and the tiring cross country travel that now is typical for a top Division One squad. Syracuse one of my wagers this year is a prime example of a team led by a freshman point guard that has hit the wall. They have gone 5-5 in their last ten games and don’t even resemble the Cuse team that started 2014 undefeated. Bottom line is that you never know it all when playing the futures and you must always be willing to adjust your strategy. Next year if I make any early wagers I will demand double digit odds or may pass until the week of the tourney.

So I am sure your next question is who would I wager on TODAY? If you are a regular reader of this space you know I am a big follower of point differential in all sports so let’s take a look at the tourney field from that angle. Below I have listed the differential for the last nine March Madness winners:

• 2005-1.28
• 2006-1.22
• 2007-1.28
• 2009-1.24
• 2010-1.26
• 2011-1.11
• 2012-1.30
• 2013-1.27

As you can see all but one team had a differential of at least 1.20. The average point differential was 1.26.

Since 32 of the last 35 champion (94%) were either a #1, #2, #3 0r #4 seed let’s take a look at this year’s candidates with their current odds in parenthesis:

• Virginia 1.20 (15/1)
• Arizona 1.26 (7/1)
• San Diego State 1.25 (75/1)
• Florida 1.23 (9/2)
• Wichita State 1.27 (15/1)
• Louisville 1.35 (7/1)

I can eliminate Virginia since no #1 seed that missed the tourney the year before has ever won. I also believe that San Diego State’s 1.25 differential came against inferior competition so they are a toss as well. That leaves Arizona, Florida, Wichita State and Louisville as the prime contenders but I hope I am wrong and all the talking heads at ESPN are right and Michigan State cuts down the nets in Texas on April 7th at 8/1. Win or lose I have learned a serious lesson about WHEN to bet March Madness. The majority of sports bettors never take the time to evaluate what they did wrong when they do lose. Thanks for checking in and Good Luck to everyone in their brackets.