I Will Be Hedging My Bet on the Seminoles

I can only remember one other time that I felt compelled to hedge on a futures wager. Back in January 2003 I was holding a nice ticket on the Oakland Raiders to win Super Bowl XXXVII. The morning of the game I gassed up the Mustang and headed across the desert floor. I remember calling one of my Vegas based buddies as I headed into the city. Jimmy the Geek as I called him was on the golf course and he was surprised to hear my voice. He had played the Raiders as well the previous summer. When I told him I was in town to wager on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he thought I had lost my mind. The Bucs had every edge defensively and I just felt like they were the better team. I was on my way to the Palms to make a good sized wager on John Gruden and company. My buddy wanted no part of my flipping sides. I explained to him that I was only hedging my bet. Still he declined to participate. We all know that the Bucs manhandled the Raiders in San Diego that afternoon and came away with a 48-21 victory.

Well fast forward nearly eleven years and I am feeling the same urge. I am now holding a ticket on the Florida State Seminoles for a hundred units at 25/1 odds. (See my August 26, 2013 post entitled “A Bettor Approach to the College Football Season”). I am sure there are more than a few of you out there that have followed my lead and done at least the same. Then why hedge the bet? The answer is easy. If I wager 1,100 units to win 1,000 units on Auburn +8 ½ or +9 (Nugget) I have a chance for one of the following three results:

• Florida State blows the Tigers out. I net 1,400 units.
• Florida State wins but does not cover the hefty number. I net 3,500 units.
• Auburn upsets the Seminoles. I net 900 units.

When is the last time you sat down to watch a game with those three scenarios deciding your fate?

I am sure your next question is why don’t I just let it ride and root for the Noles to stay undefeated and net 2,500 units. I base my decision on the facts listed below:

1) Florida State’s FBS opponents had a combined winning percentage of .490 (71-74).

2) I watched every Seminole game this year and the only team to really challenge them was Boston College and they did so with a decent ground game. BC gained 200 yards and Andre Williams got 154 of them on only 28 carries for an average of 5.3 yards per carry.

3) Auburn gained 296 yards on the ground against an Alabama squad that was allowing only 91.3 yards coming in (Ranked 4th in the nation).

4) The Tigers rushed for 545 yards against Missouri on 74 carries for an average of 7.4 yards per carry. Bottom line Auburn can run the ball!!!

5) Wagering against the team with the Heisman Trophy winner on it in their bowl game has gone 24-11 (69%) over the last 35 years.

6) Teams with the Heisman Trophy winner have gone 3-6 (33%) against the spread in the BCS Championship game.

7) The SEC is simply a better football conference than the ACC.

So there you have it. I believe Auburn has enough to hang with Jameis and Company and may even be able to upset them. I only get this urge once in a great while but I have it again and I definitely will be heading east across the desert before January 6th. Thanks for logging on and good luck with all your bowl wagers.