CWS Picks Louisville 8/1 and TCU 6/1

This year’s edition of the College World Series begins on Saturday in beautiful downtown Omaha, Nebraska. I admit I love watching NCAA baseball because it seems like the last REAL collegiate amateur sport. This year’s field of eight has survived two weeks of regional and super regional play and only two of the original National Top Eight Seeds, TCU and Virginia, have made their way to Omaha. Although I will make my selection to win this year’s championship I will not be traveling across the desert to make any futures plays because my statistic sample on this event is only ten years old. Below I have listed the teams and their odds as posted on Bovada Sports this morning:

• Virginia 3/1

• Vanderbilt 3/1

• Texas 4/1

• TCU 6/1

• Ole Miss 6/1

• UC Irvine 7/1

• Louisville 8/1

• Texas Tech 12/1

Texas is the most experienced team making their 35th appearance and Texas Tech is the lone newcomer to the dance. That would make Tech a definite “play against” especially in their first game. Since 1997 going against newbies in their first game has been successful 74% of the time with a 11-4 record playing the money line. I realize most of you reading this space are more interested in who I like to win the whole thing so here is my shot at picking the champion.

Just as in MLB I am very interested in each team’s run differential (runs scored versus runs given up) as a barometer of a team’s overall ability. The last ten Champions have averaged a 1.90 run differential with the highest being 3.58 by Cal State Fullerton in 2004 and the lowest being last year’s champion UCLA with a 1,53 differential. Using the 1.90 number as a cutoff point I find there are only three teams in this year’s field that fit: Louisville 2.08, Virginia 2.05 and TCU 1.95. Since I ALWAYS throw out repeaters and favorites I rule out playing anything on co-favorite Virginia at 3/1 odds. That leaves two possible plays: Louisville at 8/1 and TCU 6/1. Since TCU is an original Top Eight Seed and since only two number ones have won in the last ten years I would tend to lean more towards playing the Cardinals but probably 100 units on both squads would be my play. So there you have my picks for this year’s CWS but before you bet the rent money I remind you that my statistic sample is small and I will not be personally wagering on this event. Thanks for logging on and good luck!