A Bettor Approach to the College Football Season

Beginning Thursday night millions of Americans will begin a four month plus journey of trying to pick more winners than losers versus the spread in college football games. They will need to pick 53% of the games correctly just to break even. Then there are those that will fall victim to playing teasers and those awful parlay cards that pay far less than the true odds should. The books in Las Vegas are chomping at the bit waiting for their town to fill up with pundits this coming long holiday weekend. They will take millions of hard earned dollars from uninformed bettors many fueled by emotions and alcohol filled beverages. No, I will not be there joining them as I choose to take A Bettor Approach one I have been taking for over forty years. Last month I took my annual mid-summer trek across the desert to shop for and purchase my BCS futures. I do this instead of trying to beat the books who now have computers and software at their disposal that makes it nearly impossible to beat them long term. Now don’t get me wrong I still enjoy laying a few dollars down on a game while in Las Vegas but every year I have moved a larger share of my football bankroll to playing the futures. Past success has confirmed to me that this is a “bettor” way to go.

Those of you who have been following my picks over the years know that the first thing I do is to eliminate last year’s champion (Alabama) and this year’s favorite (Alabama 5/2 odds). I then compare my power ratings and my projected odds with those posted in Las Vegas. Remember it pays to shop!!! I spend quite a few hours traveling from sports book to sports book searching for the best odds on the teams I am interested in wagering on. Another steadfast rule I adhere to is to never wager on a team at less than 5 to 1 odds. This year that rule eliminated everyone’s second choice to win the BCS Championship the Ohio State Buckeyes who were posted at 4 to 1 odds. Having grown up in Ohio I am sure I will be taking a lot of heat should Urban Meyer be hoisting that crystal football in the Rose Bowl next January. No matter what they are still a toss at those odds.

Below are my wagers and as you can see shopping for the best odds does matter:

• Texas-Wagered 100 units at 30 to 1 odds at Binions in downtown Las Vegas. The worst odds on the Longhorns were 20 to 1.
• Florida State-Wagered 100 units at 25 to 1 also at Binions. The worst odds were 15 to 1.
• Oregon-Wagered 100 units at 7 to 1 yet again at Binions. The Duck’s worst odds 5 to 1.
• South Carolina-Wagered 100 units at 25 to 1 at The Golden Nugget. Worst odds on the old ball coach were 15 to 1.
• USC-Wagered 100 units on the Trojans at 50 to 1 at The Golden Nugget. This team may surprise a lot of people. The worst odds were 30 to 1.

Should you decide to take “A Bettor Approach” to the 2013/2014 college football season a couple of things to know 1) Bet early on in the season as the odds drop quickly. 2) There are only 13 to 14 different odds available because many of the books are owned by the same company. Email me if you would like the list. It will save you a lot of time. 3) Most books adjust the futures odds on Monday so wagering late Sunday night on a team you think will drop in odds could be a money saver. Check back in early October for my NFL picks and good luck to you all!!