Wiz Picks Louisville at 16 to 1 to Win the College World Series

The 2013 edition of The College World Series kicks off in Omaha on Saturday with eight of the nation’s best teams facing off in a double elimination tournament with the last two standing playing a best of three game series on June 24th, 25th and 26th. This year only three of the Top Eight National Seeds made it through the Regionals and Super Regionals: #1 North Carolina #3 Oregon State and #4 LSU. It’s not surprising that these same three squads are favored by the Las Vegas mathematicians with UNC being the 2 to1 favorite, LSU the 5 to 2 second choice and Oregon State the 3 to 1 third choice. Regular readers of this spot know that when playing the futures none of these three survive the criteria I use to pick a winner. I toss UNC because they are the favorite and it also makes it an easy decision knowing since 1999 NO #1 National Seed has gone on to win the CWS. The other two LSU and Oregon State are tossed because they do not meet our minimum 5 to1 odds criteria. So we are left with five teams from which to make our play(s) this year:

• Mississippi State 14 to 1
• Indiana 25 to 1
• Louisville 16 to 1
• North Carolina State 12 to 1
• UCLA 10 to 1

All the odds were posted yesterday at the Las Vegas Hotel (The former Hilton) yesterday.

The next criteria I look at is run differential. The average run differential for the eventual champion over the last nine years has been 1.94. Of course Series favorites UNC (2.41) and LSU (2.31) top the list but remember I don’t play favorites. The run differentials of the remaining possible plays are:

• Mississippi State 1.70
• Indiana 2.00
• Louisville 2.12
• North Carolina State 1.63
• UCLA 1.53

As you can see the only two teams left who fit my run differential criteria are Indiana and Louisville. Since no team appearing in their first CWS (Indiana) has won it all since 1956 I think I will put 100 units on Louisville at 16/1 odds and sit back and enjoy the hustle and excitement of college baseball. I think the CWS is becoming more and more popular every year and one day will become a major wagering event in America. Thanks for logging on and if you are playing the series “Good Luck”.