The Real Over and Under for Super Bowl XLVIII is Twelve

The average number of possessions for an NFL team per game is twelve. I believe that if Seattle can limit Peyton Manning to under that number they have an excellent chance of winning Super Bowl 48. If they give him more drives than that I think they will be hard pressed to score enough points to take home the Lombardi Trophy.Needless to say every time Manning starts a drive I will be making a little check mark on my game notes pad. The same pad I have next to me during EVERY game I watch. Seattle’s offense after an early season outburst has slowed considerably scoring only 123 points or 20.5 per game over their last six contests. The Broncos on the other hand have scored 192 points or 32.0 per game over the same six games. The 11.5 point difference is of great concern to me as I hold an October ticket on the Seahawks to win at 5 to 1 odds. I have seen all forty-seven Super Bowls and have come away with the belief defense wins these games. Yes, I know we live in the era of pass, pass and more passing and Denver has statistically the most prolific quarterback in NFL history but I still believe the Seahawks number one ranked defense will rise to the occasion. I always do a four point chart I call “Leaning on Defense” and this year’s numbers are below:

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game

• Denver 101.6
• Seattle 101.6

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game

• Denver 254.4
• Seattle 172.0

Total Yards Allowed Per Game

• Denver 356.0
• Seattle 273.6

Points Allowed

• Denver 399
• Seattle 231

Teams sweeping all four categories have gone 14-4 (78%) straight up in the Super Bowl. It is amazing to me that these two teams could go through an entire season and have an identical number in category one. No matter how you interpret it there is a clear advantage for the Seahawks when their defense is on the field.

If you are a regular visitor to this site then you know I am big on point differential when judging a team’s overall excellence and Seattle once again has a clear cut advantage of 1.82 versus the Broncos 1.52. In fact over the last 29 years the eventual Super Bowl winner has had an average differential of 1.63 and the loser 1.44. The higher point differential has gone 20-8 (72%) straight up (over the last 29 years) in the Super Bowl which does not include the 2011 game when Green Bay and Pittsburgh had identical numbers. The higher differential team has been the underdog seven times as are the Hawks this year. They have gone 4-3 (57%) straight up and 5-2 (71%) against the number.

In conclusion I will share with you that every year I do an eleven category Super Bowl indicator which includes which team has the better turnover ratio. In this category Seattle has a glaring 20 to 0 advantage. The Seahawks also hold a 7-2-2 advantage in this year’s table overall. This same table has gone 31-15-1 (68%) over the history of the Super Bowl but before you bet the rent or mortgage money you should be warned it has been wrong the past three years. I think I have made it pretty clear by now that I like Seattle to win Super Bowl #48 and as I hear pundit after pundit across the country picking the Broncos I just smile and ready my pad and pencil for ticking off those Manning possessions. Remember the magic number is twelve!! Thanks for logging on and Good Luck no matter what side you are on in Super Bowl 48.