It is no small wonder that you could have gotten Kentucky at 40/1 odds and U Conn at 100/1 in Las Vegas back at the beginning of March Madness. The whole 2014 NCAA basketball season has gone this way so why shouldn’t a #7seed be playing a #8 for the title. Since 1979 no #7 seed has ever won it all and only one #8 has. Does anyone even remember that U Conn needed to go to overtime to survive the first round against St Joseph? Does anyone recall that U Conn lost to Louisville on March 8th by 33 points and then again by ten in the AAC Championship game? Kentucky on the other hand went 5-5 to end their season and has needed two 3 point bombs to win their last two tournament games. Our Wisconsin Badgers at 20/1 were the latest Kentucky victim thus ending our futures winning streak and leaving us 500 units down for the NCAA basketball season.
So who wins tonight? Kentucky is currently a 2 ½ point favorite and favorites have gone 16-7 (70%) over the last twenty three years. Both teams came into the Madness with identical 1.13 regular season point differentials far below the 1.24 average for the last ten champions. U Conn has had the better tourney differential of 1.12 versus 1.05 for Kentucky who has only outscored their opponents by 18 total points over 5 games. The team scoring the most tourney points has gone 18-5 straight up and 15-8 versus the spread in the Championship game. This year it is U Conn 370-Kentucky 357. Another interesting stat favoring the Huskies is that the team with the most experienced point guard has gone 8-2 (80%) straight up over the last ten years. The stats say it is U Conn that will be cutting down the nets tonight in the house that Jerry built but based on this season I wouldn’t bet on it!! Thanks for logging in and good luck tonight.